Where will LeBron James sign? How a late-career legend changing teams impacts ticket demand

LeBron James has reportedly said he is not coming back to the Los Angeles Lakers and will be in a different uniform for his 24th NBA season. After eight seasons, multiple deep playoff runs and a championship in Hollywood, the 41-year-old legend will be picking a new destination to conclude one of the greatest careers in NBA history. 

So will LeBron return to the Cleveland Cavaliers? Will he team up with Stephen Curry on the Golden State Warriors? Or will he surprise everyone by going elsewhere?

What happens to ticket demand when a legend changes teams late in his career?

Wherever LeBron ends up, it makes for a good moment to look back at what happens to the ticket market when one of the greatest ever decides to join a new team. Because if there’s one thing the SeatGeek data shows clearly, it’s that when a GOAT changes teams late in his career, major demand comes with him.

LeBron James to the Lakers (2018)

Let’s start with the last time LeBron switched sides. 

In the Lakers' final pre-LeBron season, a 2017-18 Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball-led squad that finished 35-47, the average ticket to a Lakers home game on SeatGeek went for $168.

The season LeBron arrived, that number jumped to $279, good for a 66% spike despite the team still missing the playoffs at 37-45. That includes LeBron's home Lakers debut at Staples against the Rockets on October 20, 2018 (average ticket price was $549) and an MLK Day showdown against the Warriors that went for $648 a seat, the priciest Lakers regular-season home game on SeatGeek that year.

Tom Brady to the Buccaneers (2020)

Brady's arrival from the Patriots in March 2020 produced an even bigger ticket price jump than LeBron's, which makes sense since the Buccaneers were never the global ticket brand the Lakers are. Tampa is a small NFL market without the built-in price floor that a marquee franchise carries, so there was a lot more room to run.

Pre-Brady (2019), an average ticket to a Bucs home game ran $136 on SeatGeek. By the time Brady was lifting a Lombardi in his first season in Tampa, prices had climbed to $308.

Prices only kept climbing once full crowds returned, as Brady’s inaugural year with the Bucs was played in front of COVID-reduced crowds at Raymond James. In his first normal-capacity season in Tampa (2021-22), the average Bucs home ticket hit $378, a +177% increase over the last pre-Brady season. A small-market NFC fanbase suddenly had Super-Bowl-champion pricing, just because of one GOAT addition.

Lionel Messi to Inter Miami (2023)

If you want to see what star power does to a ticket market in real time, this is the case study.

Before Messi, Inter Miami home games in 2022 averaged $55 a ticket. After the news broke on June 7, 2023 that Messi was joining later in the season? Tickets to Inter Miami's remaining home games on SeatGeek immediately spiked to a $271 average, nearly five times the previous season’s average.

By season’s end, the 2023 average had settled at $212 per ticket, up nearly 300% year-over-year.

Messi single-handedly turned Inter Miami home games into a more expensive average ticket than a few NBA teams that same year, which was uncharted territory for any MLS franchise.