2026 MLB midseason expert predictions: Playoff picks, award races and World Series forecast

We’re more than halfway through the 2026 MLB season, and boy do things look a bit different than expected now that we’ve reached July. If you want proof, just take a look at my MLB preseason predictions from March. 

Some teams have surprised us and taken massive steps forward after poor 2025 seasons, while some squads have completely fallen flat after entering the year with tremendous expectations. 

Updated 2026 MLB playoff and award predictions

With SeatGeek serving as the Official Ticket Marketplace of MLB, it’s time to make some predictions for how the remainder of the 2026 season will play out. We have three-plus months of data and results to examine, so we're going to predict how things will shape up the rest of the season, from playoff teams to award winners and even an updated World Series prediction. 

Division winners

American League: Mariners, Guardians, Yankees

I still have more faith in the Mariners as a whole than the Rangers, whose pitching staff has taken a step back and whose offense is still suspect. The Mariners have maybe baseball’s deepest rotation and should get an offensive upgrade soon in Brendan Donovan. Plus, Cal Raleigh can’t perform this poorly for this long … right?

As for the AL Central, as much as I want to put the White Sox, I feel like the Guardians are still the biggest threat out of that division. Cleveland will get better soon when Jose Ramirez returns, and the team just always seems to have some magic that other squads don’t. The Guards also have more experience than the Sox, so I think that can prove very useful in the long run. 

And finally, the AL East. The Yankees and Rays have been the two best teams in the entire American League this year, and they’ve been jockeying for the top spot in the AL East all year long. The Yankees are the more experienced team, will get Aaron Judge back soon, have the best rotation in the American League and are more inclined to make a splash deadline move than the Rays are. This feels like the Yankees’ division – and American League – to lose.

National League: Dodgers, Brewers, Braves

Look, the Dodgers are baseball’s best team once again and have a commanding lead in the NL West after the Padres and Diamondbacks each had some early surges. The Dodgers should have the most comfortable division lead the rest of the way, and it’d be stunning if they weren’t the top seed in the National League.

The NL Central was baseball’s best division for much of the year, and you could argue that it still is. The Brewers have separated themselves from the rest of the field, though, and they’re a far more consistent team than the second-place Cubs or third-place Cardinals. The Brewers seem to have a magic sauce on the pitching end, and that will serve them well over the next few months and into October. 

The Braves took advantage of a tough start to the year by the Phillies to take command of the NL East. Philly has since woken up and is nipping on the Braves’ heels, but I think Atlanta will still hold on to win the division. The Braves have a very good pitching staff overall, have a dangerous offense that could get much better if Ronald Acuna Jr. gets healthy and Austin Riley wakes up, and the ability to be aggressive at the deadline as needed. 

Wild Card teams

American League: Rays, White Sox, Rangers

Given how things have gone so far, it feels safe to assume the second-place finishers in the AL East and Central will make the playoffs. That feels especially true for the AL East with either the Yankees or Rays. As noted, I think New York will win the division, so Tampa should get the top Wild Card spot. The Rays have a pair of trios leading the charge, with Nick Martinez, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McLanahan on the hill and Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda and Yandy Diaz at the plate. The Rays are going to be a dangerous team in October.

I didn’t think Chicago would amount to much this year, but the Sox have had some breakout pitchers in Sean Burke and Davis Martin as well as a dangerous young lineup. Munetaka Murakami is the X-factor with how he performs after a lengthy IL stint after he had a monster start to his MLB career. Chicago’s lineup is good, young and confident, and it’s clear those bats don’t know they shouldn’t be this good or simply don’t care. Either way, the Sox look October bound. 

The final Wild Card spot is tough to pin down. The Blue Jays probably should make the playoffs on talent alone, but they’ve been really inconsistent overall while also dealing with injuries. The Tigers had a disastrous month of May and likely will sell at the deadline. It looks like it may be the second-place finisher in the AL West who gets the final spot. Right now, Texas is the better team than Houston. The Rangers have lineup issues, but they score enough runs to win. Houston’s pitching has been the worst in baseball at times this year. I think the Astros, if they get hot, are more dangerous than the Rangers, but Texas feels like a safer pick to be better and more consistent the rest of the way. 

National League: Phillies, Cubs, Pirates

Like the AL, it feels easy to pick the first two teams. The Phillies have caught fire since firing manager Rob Thomson and have a dangerous lineup headlined by Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber and the pitching staff, led by Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler and closer Jhoan Duran, is plenty potent, too. I almost think the Phillies are the team best equipped to match up with the Dodgers in a postseason series. 

The Cubs are a dangerous team, largely thanks to the lineup. The rotation is beat up and struggling, but Chicago’s bats have plenty of thump and the lineup has length. If Alex Bregman really heats up, that group will only be more dangerous moving forward. I also think Chicago will be among the most aggressive teams at the deadline to improve the pitching staff. The Cubs have both two 10-game win streaks and a 10-game losing streak, so they can be streaky, which can be a very good thing or very bad thing. Either way, I think the Cubs will do enough to make it to October. 

The final NL Wild Card spot is tough to identify. The Cardinals are best positioned at this stage to make it to the postseason, but I have major question marks about their pitching staff. The Marlins have been frisky of late, as have the Nationals at times, but both are young teams with big issues. I then lean to the Pirates. Their pitching staff has actually underperformed, which is surprising, but the lineup has been among the league’s best, which is also a surprise. They have one of the better run differentials in baseball this season, so they’re actually underperforming overall. I think there will be some positive regression there that can help the Buccos sneak into October. 

MVP

American League: Houston Astros DH Yordan Alvarez

This is tough to pin down. Aaron Judge’s injury really shook things up, and guys like Jose Ramirez getting hurt also made it more wide open. Alvarez has been flirting with the Triple Crown this year, and it looks like the Astros will be in the thick of things in the AL West the rest of the way, which only helps Alvarez’s case. A strong second half from a big name on a better contender could really open this race back up, but for now, it looks like this is Alvarez’s award to lose.

National League: Los Angeles Dodgers RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani

Ohtani is really good, guys. Ohtani has won NL MVP each of the last two years and has won an MVP in four of his last five seasons. He should win his fifth overall MVP and fourth in a row this year. Ohtani has been red hot at the plate over the last month-plus after a “cold” start to 2026 by his lofty standards, and he’s been dominant on the mound now that he’s fully healthy. Barring an injury, there’s no one who comes close to challenging Ohtani for this award.

Cy Young

American League: New York Yankees RHP Cam Schlittler

Schlittler has been the frontrunner all season long, and while he hasn’t been as dominant of late, he’s still the best pitcher in the American League in 2026. The tall right-hander was great as a rookie yet has still taken a massive step forward in Year 2. He’s been among the game’s best in limiting runs and baserunners, striking hitters out and pounding the zone. This one may open up a bit more if Schlittler slows down with a heavy workload in his first full MLB season, but he’s shown he can handle things so far, so he’s the clear favorite at this point. 

National League: Milwaukee Brewers RHP Jacob Misiorowski

The favorite in the NL is far more clear cut, and it’s another second-year hurler in “The Mis.” Misiorowski has been baseball’s best pitcher by far this year with a sub-2 ERA and an insane WHIP while punching out more than 13 hitters per nine innings. Misiorowski is also setting new standards for what a flame-throwing starter looks like as he’s been setting a ton of velocity-related records all season long. Again, workload will be key to monitor here, but when he’s at his best, Misiorowski is the best starter the game has to offer this season, and it hasn’t been particularly close. 

Rookie of the Year

American League: Detroit Tigers IF Kevin McGonigle

My preseason pick for this award, Munetaka Murakami, was running away with this award before missing more than a month with a hamstring injury. That opened the door for a more-than-deserving AL Central infielder in Detroit’s McGonigle. Despite being just 21 years old, McGonigle is already the Tigers’ best player. He’s been flirting with a .300 average basically all year long, is providing some thump and slug, is stealing bases and walking more than he’s striking out. McGonigle is a very complete player for how young he is, and while Murakami has more flair, McGonigle is a very worthy ROY frontrunner as we move into the later stages of 2026.

National League: St. Louis Cardinals IF JJ Wetherholt

Wetherholt has done what was expected of him as a rookie, providing a steady presence atop St. Louis’ lineup. The former No. 2 overall pick gets on base at a high clip, provides some slug and makes a ton of contact. There were a lot of big names in the NL Rookie of the Year field entering the season, but Wetherholt has been the best and most consistent by far. He’s the favorite to win this award, and it’d be surprising if he cools off enough to the point where someone overtakes him. 

Manager of the Year

American League: Chicago White Sox Will Venable

No manager in the AL has done a better job this year than Venable. After losing 102 games in his debut season as Chicago’s manager, Venable has the Sox not only competitive, but in the driver’s seat for a postseason berth. It’s taken a while, but the White Sox’s young talent has started to click, and no team has taken a bigger step forward from 2025 to 2026 than Chicago. Venable deserves a lot of praise for that, and barring a massive collapse, it’s hard to argue for any other AL skipper being more deserving of this award.

National League: Atlanta Braves Walt Weiss

The NL Manager of the Year race is a bit more crowded than in the AL. Atlanta’s Weiss, who took over for longtime skipper Brian Snitker, guided the Braves to an incredible start and has them in the lead in the NL East after a disappointing 2025 campaign. Weiss’ squad has struggled a bit of late, and the Phillies are hot on their heels, so keep an eye out for Don Mattingly, Philadelphia’s interim manager, in this race. First-year Pirates skipper Don Kelly, St. Louis’ Oli Marmol and Miami’s Clayton McCullough also have their teams in contention, so those three are all worth a mention, too. But for now, we’ll target Weiss considering the Braves have, at times, looked like a clear top challenger to the Dodgers in the National League. 

World Series matchup

Dodgers over Yankees

Wow, how bold! But seriously, it would be a surprise at this stage if we got anything besides a rematch of the 2024 World Series. 

I had the Dodgers as my preseason pick both to represent the National League in the World Series but also to win it all for a 3-peat. That hasn’t changed, and unless something drastic happens, that will remain my pick (though I am very high on this iteration of the Phillies). 

The Mariners were my preseason pick out of the AL, and while I think they’ll still win the West, they’ve been wildly inconsistent at the plate and hardly look like a team ready to make their first World Series appearance. 

The Yankees, on the other hand, have an elite rotation headlined by Schlittler, Gerrit Cole and Max Fried, a dangerous bullpen and a lineup that has the best hitter on the planet, Judge, leading the way once he’s back and healthy. I think New York’s lineup is a bit top-heavy, but the Yankees still look like the best and most complete team in what’s been a very weak American League this season. Unless Judge suffers a setback or looks like a shell of himself upon his return, the Yankees look like the clear top dogs in the American League.