Aug 31, 2026
·Brandon Gustafson
The calendar is set to flip to September this week, and as such, we’re entering the home stretch of the 2026 MLB season.
This year has hardly been disappointing. We’ve had some surprise teams emerge to take control of their respective divisions, we may have not one, not two, not three but four first-time winners in the MVP and Cy Young races, and there are some squads that appear to have the makeup to spoil the Dodgers’ 3-peat hopes.
2026 late-season expert MLB awards and playoff predictions
With SeatGeek serving as the Official Ticket Marketplace of MLB, we’ve been following the races for all of the league’s top awards as well as every available playoff spot. Before we head into September, here are our final predictions for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year as well as each division and all available Wild Card spots.
AL MVP: Yordan Alvarez
Outside of one – maybe two – of the major awards, it feels like everything is pretty much locked up entering September. That’s especially true of an AL MVP race that’s been a one-man show for most of the season.
When Aaron Judge went down, it felt like the race would be wide open. Instead, due both to injuries to star players and the elite play of one man in particular, the only question is whether Yordan Alvarez is a unanimous MVP or not.
Houston is fighting for a playoff spot right now in weak AL West and AL Wild Card races, but even should the Astros collapse, Alvarez would be a more than worthy candidate. He’s the best hitter in the American League, slashing .317/.432/.607 (1.039 OPS) with 37 home runs and 93 RBIs – all of which lead the AL. This is a very easy choice.
NL MVP: Pete Crow-Armstrong
From the easiest choice to the hardest one we go.
Personally, I would still give Shohei Ohtani the nod over Pete Crow-Armstrong for NL MVP, but PCA is more than worthy. He’s been on fire at the plate of late, and he’s starting to pull away from Ohtani in many notable offensive categories, which wasn’t the case a week or two ago. The X-factor with this race will be whether Ohtani can return to the mound in a meaningful way in September, because that’s what could really separate him from PCA.
The sentiment seems to be that PCA is the favorite, and I think if it’s even a toss-up in voters’ eyes, that the young outfielder will get the nod over someone who has won four MVPs in his career, including each of the last two in the NL. And again, that’s not to suggest PCA isn’t worthy. He’s the game’s best power-speed threat who may well get a 40-40 season this year. He also plays elite defense at a premium defensive position in center field. No one should get too worked up if he brings home the hardware, and it’s certainly trending that way.
AL Cy Young: Cam Schlittler
This is another award where there’s really no wrong choice. Dylan Cease has been the more dominant pitcher in terms of counting stats as he leads the American League in strikeouts and hits per nine allowed, but Cam Schlittler has been nearly as good in both those departments while also walking far fewer batters than Cease and allowing fewer runs.
Schlittler owns a dazzling 2.09 ERA on the year along with a sub-1 WHIP, and he just crossed the 200-strikeout threshold in his most recent start. He’s been dominant and remarkably consistent. The second-year hurler has worked fewer than five innings just four times in 28 starts and has only allowed more than three runs three times. The second-year jump has been incredible for Schlittler, who has anchored one of the best rotations in baseball this year and has made three more starts than Cease as well, which is worth noting.
NL Cy Young: Jacob Misiorowski
After bursting onto the scene last year, it was always going to be hard for Jacob Misiorowski to live up to the hype. So much for that sentiment.
“The Mis” is baseball’s best pitcher, full stop. The Paul Skenes comparisons were fun at first, but Misiorowski is better right now than Skenes has ever been. The Brewers right-hander leads baseball in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, strikeouts per nine and hits per nine. The guy has a 1.73 ERA, 0.755 WHIP and is allowing 4.7 hits per nine innings pitched while punching out 13.2 batters per nine to boot. It’s video game stuff.
There were some durability concerns for Misiorowski due to his build and incredible fastball, but he’s been able to stay on the mound and throw triple-digits with dynamic secondary stuff. Not bad for your second year in the bigs.
AL Rookie of the Year: Kevin McGonigle
This has been a great year for rookies in both leagues, but this one should be unanimous. Kevin McGonigle has been everything the Tigers had hoped for and then some. It’s rare to see a rookie come up and produce the way he has, as he’s been hitting in the high-.200s with elite on-base skills, some pop, some speed all while striking out at essentially the same rate he’s walking. His approach is one of the best in the game and is extremely advanced for someone his age. McGonigle isn’t just the best rookie in baseball this year, but he’s been one of the league’s best players in terms of value with more than 6 bWAR. He’s also seen considerable time at two important defensive positions of shortstop and third base. At just 22 years old, we should be talking about McGonigle as an MVP candidate for years to come.
NL Rookie of the Year: Sal Stewart
My preseason pick, St. Louis infielder JJ Wetherholt, has been the presumptive favorite for this award for much of the season, but he’s really struggled offensively (.618 OPS) in the second half and is now on the IL, both of which are hurting his chances. On the other hand, Reds slugger Sal Stewart has been a consistent run-producing force while having little help around him this year. The rookie first baseman could flirt with 40 homers (he’s at 31), and he’s already driven in over 100 runs while posting an OPS of .827. Wetherholt is more valuable in terms of bWAR due in large part to his defensive play while Stewart is a first baseman, but Stewart’s overall offensive numbers are hard to look past, especially when you consider he’s a rookie. Add in that Wetherholt is hurt and this feels like Stewart’s to lose.
AL East: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are officially back. After a few down years, Tampa Bay has found its mojo as it returned to Tropicana Field, and the result is the clear team to beat in the American League.
The Rays are back to doing everything well. The pitching has been excellent with Shane McClanahan back, Nick Martinez being the best bargain addition of last offseason and Drew Rasmussen making yet another All-Star team while taking his game to the next level. And as was the case when the Rays were thriving in the late-2010s, the team has a great bullpen as well. Offensively, Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda and Yandy Diaz are a dominant trio, and trade addition Liam Hicks has been excellent since coming over from Miami.
Tampa Bay leads New York by 4.5 games in the division, so this is hardly wrapped up, but the Rays are my pick to win the East and secure homefield advantage in the postseason. They look like the best and most complete team in the AL.
AL Central: Chicago White Sox
For much of the year, I’ve thought that the White Sox would fall off and the more veteran Guardians would catch them. Chicago has consistently stepped up and shown me the error of my ways as the team just keeps stringing together good and consistent stretches. The Sox aren’t world beaters by any means, and I’m not expecting a World Series appearance, but I’ve been really impressed by the consistency of this young team. Chicago will contend for a first-round bye and direct path into the ALDS, and that’s pretty remarkable considering how poor they’ve been the last few years.
AL West: Houston Astros
Baseball’s worst division has to have a winner, so … who will it be? There are cases to be made for all three of Houston, Texas and Seattle.
As for the Mariners, they have arguably baseball’s easiest strength of schedule for the rest of the season. But after getting swept in Toronto, they’re five games back. The offense is struggling mightily once again and the pitching hasn’t been nearly as good as recent seasons.
Texas is an intriguing team and has some notable pieces on its roster, but the Rangers are bottom 10 in ERA and bottom five in runs scored. They’re only two games back at this point.
But the Astros have the best and most complete team at this time, anchored by the likely AL MVP in Alvarez. This isn’t the Big Bad Astros of years prior that just steamrolled the American League en route to pennants and World Series titles, but they have the best mix of hitting and pitching in the division, and that will go a long way. Now, Houston is very flawed, as the record indicates, but there are just fewer flaws than Texas and Seattle have right now.
AL Wild Cards: New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Guardians
Really this is just about picking the third and final team. The Yankees and Red Sox, along with Tampa, make up the three clear best teams in the American League, and I’d be stunned if it wasn’t one of those three representing the AL in the World Series.
Now, for that third spot, Cleveland gets the nod over a handful of other teams like Toronto, Baltimore, Texas, Minnesota, Seattle and Detroit. This is a weak – very weak – AL Wild Card race, so I’m going with the most proven team of the bunch.
The Guardians have won the AL Central each of the last two years and have one of the game’s best skippers in Stephen Vogt. Additionally, the team’s lineup has really picked things up of late, ranking in the top half of baseball in runs scored since the start of August. Cleveland’s pitching remains very good, and the team only needs so much offense to get by. Getting top-half production from this lineup makes them the most complete team of the bunch, in my eyes, though with how jumbled up these standings are, this race could very well come down to the last week or even series of the year. It’s also worth noting the Guardians have one of the easiest strength of schedules left in all of baseball, as do Toronto and Seattle.
NL East: Atlanta Braves
I was tempted to put the Phillies here, but they’ve been unable to close the gap with the Braves just yet. Philly enters the week five games back. Now, stranger things have happened, but even if the Phillies stay hot, I don’t think the Braves will be that cold to where Philadelphia overtakes them.
It’s been an interesting year in Atlanta, though there’s no denying the team is one of the best in the league this year. The Braves have a top-10 offense and top-five pitching staff anchored by a true ace in Chris Sale. Atlanta’s lineup has been a bit more inconsistent than you’d expect given some of the big names in the mix, but it’s a talented group that has a lot of playoff experience. I’m not sure if Atlanta will get a first-round bye, but the Braves have a good chance of getting into the NLDS, where a series against Los Angeles or Milwaukee would be waiting. Now that would be fun.
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers
The Cubs are a worthy foe here, but the Brewers own an eight-game lead over Chicago and appear more likely to end the year with the best record in baseball than to end up a Wild Card team. The Brewers have elite pitching, headlined by Misiorowski’s incredible season, and the lineup, while not flashy, gets on base, swipes bags and scores a lot of runs. Milwaukee made it to the NLCS last year and has a strong chance of at least replicating that level of success this season. There’s not much to say here – the team is just really dang good at basically everything.
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have won four NL West titles in a row and 12 of the last 13. They have a 9.5-game lead over Arizona right now and appear to be cruising toward yet another division crown. There’s little reason to doubt L.A.’s prospects of winning the West, and the only real question now is whether or not the Dodgers can win their third straight World Series. Given how loaded the roster is, it’s hard to pick anyone else to be the favorite right now.
NL Wild Cards: Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres
The Cubs would love to catch the Brewers in the Central, but it’s hard to see that happening. The No. 1 Wild Card is hardly a bad consolation prize, though, and the Cubs will enter the postseason as a very dangerous team. The lineup, headlined by PCA, is a force to be reckoned with, ranking as one of the best in baseball in runs scored and home runs hit. The long ball always seems to play a big role in October, so Chicago is well set up there. The big question is on the pitching side. Shota Imanaga, Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes are the team’s current top three starters, but Gausman has struggled since his trade to Chicago. Can Ben Brown return and make an impact? Chicago’s prospects are tied to their pitching.
If you’ve been following my work on the SeatGeek blog this year, you know I’m high on the Phillies. The team has as much top-end starpower as any team in baseball with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper leading the charge offensively and the trio of Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo really standing out. The addition of Luis Arraez has been excellent for Philly’s lineup, and the team has gotten nice contributions from Alec Bohm of late after a very slow start to the season. I really like the makeup of Los Angeles, Milwaukee and Chicago, but the Phillies, outside of the Dodgers, have the most collective big-game experience, and that’s hard to bet against. Plus, that rotation trio is potentially devastating in a shortened series.
And we’ll back the Padres to take the final Wild Card spot over their division rivals, the Diamondbacks. There appear to be fewer questions with San Diego at this point in time, as their lineup has started to come to life in the second half and the Padres are better set in the rotation than the Diamondbacks are. I’m not too sold on the Padres in terms of securing a playoff series, but it’s hard to count them out, especially considering they have the best back-end bullpen in baseball headlined by Mason Miller. Should San Diego get a lead heading into the sixth or seventh inning, it’s hard to see the team losing.