5 MLB surprise teams for 2026: Rangers, Pirates and other under-the-radar playoff contenders

While the Los Angeles Dodgers repeated as World Series champs in 2025, last year’s postseason was full of surprise teams. Heading into Opening Day, who had the Toronto Blue Jays pegged for a World Series appearance and the best record in the American League? The Milwaukee Brewers were another big surprise with the best regular-season record in baseball. Add in the Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians and, to a lesser extent, the Seattle Mariners, and last postseason featured plenty of squads that could have been described as “sleepers” in 2025. 

But what about 2026? If you’re trying to spot value on SeatGeek (the official ticketing partner of MLB) before the rest of the baseball world catches up, we’ve highlighted five teams below that missed the postseason last year and are being slightly overlooked by the masses entering the season.

MLB sleeper teams to keep an eye on for the 2026 season

These are the under‑the‑radar clubs that belong on every fan’s radar from Opening Day on.

Houston Astros

It’s never a smart bet to count against the Astros, who missed the postseason in 2025 for the first time since 2016. The next year? They won their first World Series title in franchise history in 2017. Houston wasn’t far off from making the postseason last year, either, falling just short of securing a Wild Card berth due to a tiebreaker with the Detroit Tigers. 

Expectations are a bit down in Houston given the team has a rather aging core and just lost co-ace Framber Valdez in free agency, but if we know anything about the Astros, we know they’re great at developing unheralded prospects into big-time starting pitchers—including Valdez—and that experience often pays out. Plus, Yordan Alvarez figures to be healthy after an injury-plagued 2025. A healthy Alvarez alongside Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Jeremy Pena should at least keep Houston in Wild Card contention deep into September once again. 

Texas Rangers

Staying in the American League and the great state of Texas, we’ll highlight the Rangers, who went .500 and missed the postseason for the second straight year after winning the 2023 World Series. 

Why should you be high on the Rangers? Well, for starters, their starters. Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi anchored a pitching staff that finished first in MLB in team ERA at just 3.47. Add in former Nationals star MacKenzie Gore and that’s a 1-3 trio you don’t want to face come October. 

The biggest questions come with the lineup and at skipper. For the former, Texas was 22nd in runs scored last season while ranking 26th in team batting average. The lineup figures to be a bit different after swapping Marcus Semien out for former Mets star outfielder Brandon Nimmo. Whether that unit takes a step forward will depend—besides health—on the progression of young guns Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter and Josh Jung. 

As for the skipper, gone is the legendary Bruce Bochy and in is Skip Schumaker. Schumaker is a former National League Manager of the Year and did well amid tough circumstances with the Marlins, but replacing an icon like Bochy is no easy task. One of Schumaker’s first duties is to sort out the team’s road woes after Texas was just 33-48 away from home in 2025.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves were seen as a top World Series contender in 2025 as the team was armed with a strong lineup, the reigning Cy Young winner and would eventually get superstar outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. back in the mix. Unfortunately for Atlanta, things went sour fast. The Braves finished 76-86 and fourth in the National League East—a shocking result in comparison to expectations. 

Well, if expectations sank the Braves in 2025, perhaps a lack of them in 2026 will do them wonders. They’re seen as the third-best team in the NL East behind the Mets and Phillies but still own a roster more than capable of making a World Series run. 

Acuna was excellent in 90+ games last year with an OPS over .900, Chris Sale had a 2.58 ERA in 21 starts after his Cy Young season and the team had the NL Rookie of the Year in standout catcher Drake Baldwin. Former All-Stars litter the roster, such as Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy, Austin Riley and Matt Olsen. Outside of Olsen, the other three had down years and/or missed time in 2025. This roster is too talented to finish under .500 yet again, and I’d be more surprised if the Braves missed the playoffs than if they made the NLCS. 

Kansas City Royals

The Royals fit this bill in 2024 when they made the postseason, but they followed that up with an 82-80 record in 2025. That was obviously a disappointment after how exciting 2024 was, but 2026 has the makings of a potentially exciting season in its own right, especially in a wide-open American League and AL Central. 

You can’t talk about the Royals without bringing up superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. He already has three top-seven MVP finishes along with two Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers. He can take games and series over with his five-tool mix. The Royals still have Salvador Perez to slug in the middle of the lineup while his heir apparent, Carter Jensen, raked in limited action last year. Maikel Garcia broke out with an .800 OPS, earning him an All-Star nod and MVP votes. Vinnie Pasquantino had a strong 2025 as well with a .798 OPS. Jonathan India should provide some lineup stability, and there’s nowhere to go but up for former top prospect Jac Caglianone after a lackluster rookie campaign. 

The arms are where the Royals could be boom or bust, however. When healthy, the quartet of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Kris Bubic is as dangerous as it gets. But Bubic made just 20 starts last year, Ragans made 14 and Lugo took a step back after finishing second in Cy Young voting in 2024. If Kansas City gets some better injury luck there, it raises its floor and ceiling tremendously. The back end of the bullpen also could be strong with veteran closer Carlos Estevez, Lucas Erceg and free-agent addition Matt Strahm. John Schreiber was also solid in 2025.

Pittsburgh Pirates

I’m not Mr. Hot Take, but I think this Pirates team could be like last year’s Reds team and sneak into the postseason, especially given each league has three Wild Card spots up for grabs. 

The Pirates have the game’s best right-handed starter in Paul Skenes, the reigning Cy Young winner in the National League, while veterans Mitch Keller (4.02 ERA in 176 1/3 innings last year) and Jose Urquidy (former steady starter for Houston) should help the rotation be a reliable producer in 2026. 

The lineup had its share of struggles in 2025, but stronger offensive seasons from Bryan Reynolds and/or Oneil Cruz would do wonders. Plus, the team added three high-floor producers in Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna. That trio alone should get the Pirates’ bats moving in the right direction. 

We know who the clear top teams in the National League are in 2026, but the Pirates could certainly make some noise and be in contention in September.